According to IDC tablets might be a victim of their own success-- the analyst forecasts 19.4% market growth for 2014, down from 51.6% in 2013 due to customers buying less replacements, particularly in mature markets.
Earlier 2014 IDC forecasts are down by -3.6% to 260.9 million units globally.
Also on the slowdown is ASP decline-- from -18.3% compared to 2011 in 2012, to -14.6% Y-o-Y in 2013 and just -3.6% Y-o-Y in 2014. This is chiefly due to higher-price commercial shipment growth and consumer preference shifting away from ultra-low cost products.
"After years of strong growth, we expect the white-box tablet market to slow in 2014 as consumers move to higher-end devices that work better and last longer,"IDC says. "In mature markets, where many buyers have purchased higher-end products from market leaders, consumers are deciding that their current tablets are good enough for the way they use them. Few are feeling compelled to upgrade the same way they did in years past, and that's having an impact on growth rates."
Meanwhile commercial shipments are to grow within the overall, infiltrating SMBs and large enterprises as well as verticals such as education. One company should benefit from the situation-- Microsoft.
"Though Android and iOS will remain dominant, we expect Windows-based devices to capture more than 25% of the market as its benefits become apparent thanks to growing adoption of 2-in-1s," the analyst concludes.
