According to IDC global shipments of what it calls personal computing devices (PCDs)-- combined traditional PCs and tablets-- are forecast to decline from 435 million units in 2016 to 418.2m by 2021, making a CAGR of -0.8%.
The forecast follows a stronger-than-expected shipments for traditional PCs in 2016. A combination of aggressive promotion in H2 2016 and a tightening component supply for notebooks helped drive stronger volume across both consumer and commercial segments in Q4. As a result, commercial notebook shipments ended on a positive note with 2% Y-o-Y growth, while consumer notebooks declined by just -1% Y-o-Y.
On the tablet side, slate shipments continue to decline as expected while detachable/hybrid devices see "dramatic" decline in Q4 2016. This is due to the segment's dependence on individual product launch cycles from the likes of Apple and Microsoft. The lack of Q4 product refreshes lead to a -26.1% Y-o-Y decline for hybrids and a "more tempered" outlook for the entire tablet market, even if IDC believes the growing popularity of hybrids will lead to a return to growth over the next 5 years.